A few scenarios if the temperature rises an average 1 degree celsius in the next 20 years (remember, we’re talking averages):

- 20 more 90-degree days per year

- vast power outages, like the blackout two summers back, occurring every few months--followed by rioting and looting.

- malaria widespread death; too many bodies to bury followed by cholera.
food shortages as the world’s agrarian centers shift

- everything at sea level (think nearly all of Manhattan) underwater and uninhabitable due to rising seas.

- chaotic population shifts (again, think all of Manhattan, as well as Queens, the Bronx, Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Long Island) as the sea inundates everything (plans to build sea walls is too pathetically sad to be laughable).

It will make the Day after Tomorrow look like the Lizzy McGuire Movie.

Here are the likely consequences, with some NYC thrown in.

1. frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (like 20 more above 100 degree days in August).

2. floods--overflowing sewers--cholera, impassable streets, stuck subways

3. droughts--water is our main resource. No water, no city.

4. heat waves--death, increased reliance on AC, blackouts, looting.

5. hurricanes\tornados--Think Katrina in NYC.

6. Varying crop yield--nice way to say bare shelves at your local Met Foods

7. Rising oceans--oceans rise, Manhattan disappears. You can’t stop tides.

8. species extinctions--if insect-eating birds alone vanish, the incidence of malaria skyrockets. Malaria kills 1-3 million people each year, and is the fifth leading cause of death among children in Africa.

Other effects:

Effects on ecosystems: Some species may be forced from their habitats (possibly to extinction) because of changing conditions, while others may flourish.

Thawing of tundra, which can release significant amounts of the potent greenhouse gas, methane, which is trapped in permafrost and ice clathrate compounds.

One ecological effect: polar bears use sea ice to reach their prey and they must swim to another ice floe when one breaks up.

Glacier retreat around the world: there has been a net decline in 142 of the 144 mountain glaciers with records from 1900 to 1980. Since 1980 global glacier retreat has increased significantly. Hindu Kush and Himalayan glacial melts are especially scarey. The melt of these glaciers is a large and reliable source of water for China, India, and much of Asia Increased melting would cause greater flow for several decades, after which “some areas of the most populated region on Earth are likely to ‘run out of water’”

Destabilization of ocean currents. Any change in currents would change the earth’s weather systems. We have no way to survive raging elements

Environmental refugees: as coastal cities flood, refugees would flee, overtaxing social structures of neighboring cities.

Spread of disease: outbreaks of Vibrio parahaemolyticus gastroenteritis has been attributed to generally rising ocean temperature where infected oysters were harvested in Prince William Sound, Alaska in 2005.

Financial effects: Financial institutions, including the world’s two largest insurance companies, Munich Re and Swiss Re, warned in a 2002 study (UNEP summary) that “the increasing frequency of severe climatic events, coupled with social trends” could cost almost US$150 billion each year in the next decade. These costs would, through increased costs related to insurance and disaster relief, burden customers, taxpayers, and industry alike.

Biomass production: While it’s thought that an increase in carbon dioxide levels should speed up plant growth, which would slow down the effects of global warming, a new study has found the opposite to be true.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.